Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.471612 15.391337 17.471051 19.889384 22.622073 25.612180 29.129852
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.737578 13.332773 16.367138 20.168636 24.795291 30.234615 37.105452
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.137938 11.968546 15.443318 20.007331 25.827828 32.984897 42.434296
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.811236 10.730190 14.472107 19.597215 26.408104 35.119175 47.072921
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.955247 9.955548 13.947923 19.615961 27.417821 37.735639 52.364494
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.359673 9.448614 13.699802 19.933521 28.788723 40.854580 58.466772
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.809195 8.933989 13.370612 20.072919 29.873281 43.596940 64.167747
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.251456 8.345001 12.868617 19.896999 30.457483 45.629038 68.941102
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.866371 7.972041 12.639252 20.081618 31.548118 48.413628 74.924680
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.638606 7.816727 12.715357 20.716591 33.332361 52.294048 82.728170
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.243661 7.355806 12.275358 20.504842 33.781131 54.166857 87.566568
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.717527 6.630714 11.354834 19.449975 32.813970 53.779418 88.843697
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.540277 6.484322 11.372693 19.937698 34.380790 57.490368 96.877644
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.366395 6.328269 11.361313 20.373353 35.887678 61.191304 105.115001
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.098362 5.979068 10.989417 20.158461 36.273139 63.063591 110.424929
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.828333 5.601205 10.535987 19.762536 36.311160 64.343498 114.792747
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.646516 5.370707 10.324721 19.775674 37.052547 66.835662 121.335805
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.524264 5.242532 10.287820 20.097642 38.354946 70.350655 129.821626
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.387146 5.072846 10.159554 20.237462 39.328191 73.330871 137.509834
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.221439 4.831189 9.875711 20.060398 39.698227 75.246732 143.379802
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.112892 4.696285 9.786318 20.246376 40.752386 78.438665 151.709190
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.062931 4.679015 9.925818 20.886298 42.705368 83.369093 163.477301
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.924328 4.461041 9.646933 20.672899 42.986570 85.199368 169.540168